Six Core Insights from the LED Revolution

Study traces LED progress through efficiency, scale and research

1. The Economics of Light: Cheap, but Not Because of Labs

The dramatic cost drop in LED manufacturing — 95.5% over 17 years — was not primarily driven by research breakthroughs, the study finds. Instead, improvements in manufacturing yields and economies of scale, such as increasing sapphire wafer diameters, did most of the work. These changes reflect cumulative production experience and investment in scaling, rather than targeted R&D.

This diverges from what many in the lighting and semiconductor sectors might expect. While R&D has often been framed as the engine of cost innovation, the data in this case highlight the potency of industrial learning and volume production efficiencies.

2. Where R&D Mattered Most: Quality and Performance

While cost savings came from process refinement, R&D played a dominant role in enhancing LED light quality. The study attributes most improvements in internal quantum efficiency, color rendering index (CRI), and tunable correlated color temperature (CCT) to R&D efforts — often those supported by public funding or academic-industry collaboration.

For lighting professionals, this distinction is essential. If you're designing products where color quality, tunability, and spectral performance matter, the evidence suggests that R&D remains a central driver of progress.

3. The People and Institutions Behind the Progress

The study draws on interviews with experts across academia and industry, many with ties to companies like OSRAM, GE Lighting, and Nichia. These companies appear frequently in the patent literature and commercialization timelines, but the research credits a wide range of contributors — particularly mission-driven public R&D programs and interdisciplinary research teams.

The collaborative nature of these advances highlights the role of shared knowledge networks and public-private partnerships in shaping lighting technology.

4. Innovation by Osmosis: How Spillovers Shaped LEDs

Among the most striking conclusions: at least 8.5% of the total efficiency improvement in LEDs between 2003 and 2020 stemmed from technology spillovers — the transfer of knowledge or techniques from other fields into LED development. Nearly all consumer-facing improvements in CRI and CCT came from outside lighting, such as CRT display phosphors, materials chemistry, and optical engineering.

Rather than suggesting a deficit in lighting R&D, the authors describe a system where LED innovation has been enriched by adjacent disciplines. From quantum dots to narrow-band red phosphors, the study highlights how expertise developed in other industries found new life in lighting applications.

5. Physical Limits Are Now in Sight

Several sub-efficiencies within LED packages — such as internal quantum efficiency, droop efficiency, and light extraction — are now approaching within 10 percentage points of their theoretical physical limits. This suggests that future efficiency gains will be harder to achieve and more expensive to pursue.

Only spectral efficiency shows notable room for improvement, offering one of the few remaining frontiers for fundamental performance gains.

6. Faster Than Any Lighting Tech in History

The researchers estimate that LED luminous efficacy has increased by 10 lumens per watt per year, making it the fastest-evolving lighting technology in recorded history. That rate surpasses even compact fluorescents and high-intensity discharge lamps.

This rapid advancement, paired with falling prices and improved quality, helps explain why LEDs now dominate new lighting installations globally. Yet it also implies that the pace of progress may soon slow, shifting focus to system-level design, control strategies, and integration with building technologies.